The Morning Talk: Budget 2026 and a Cautious October
By YorkNine Desk · · Market watch
GTA home sales fell 7.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, TRREB reported, while the federal budget widened mortgage insurance rules and reshaped the foreign buyer ban.
Edition of Sunday, November 8, 2026. Compiled on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 from sources published by that morning.
Top lines
- TRREB reported 5,603 GTA home sales in October, down 7.9 per cent from a year earlier, with the MLS® HPI Composite down 4.3 per cent (TRREB).
- Budget 2026 proposes letting homes priced up to $1.5 million carry optional mortgage insurance, with 30-year amortizations in some cases (Daily Hive Urbanized).
- The budget would keep foreign buyers out of existing homes until 2029 but open new homes to them (Better Dwelling).
- Insurance changes for triplexes and fourplexes apply to applications on or after Feb. 1, 2027 (Daily Hive Urbanized).
GTA home sales fall 7.9 per cent in October as buyers wait
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 5,603 GTA sales through its MLS® System in October, down 7.9 per cent from October 2025. New listings totalled 14,173, down 11.9 per cent (TRREB). The board said uncertainty over inflation, borrowing costs and the economy kept many buyers on the sidelines.
The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.3 per cent from a year earlier, and the average selling price of $1,024,108 was down 2.7 per cent.
Why it matters: Buyers have kept negotiating room on price, and TRREB said lower prices have limited the effect of higher borrowing costs on monthly payments. Use the mortgage calculator to test your own numbers.
Budget 2026 lifts the price cap on optional mortgage insurance
The federal budget released Thursday proposes that homes priced up to $1.5 million, rather than $1 million, could carry optional mortgage default insurance. Repayment over 30 years would be permitted when at least one borrower is a first-time buyer or the property is newly built (Daily Hive Urbanized). The measure applies to buyers with down payments of 20 per cent or more.
Some budget measures still need legislation or regulations, or are headed for consultation (Canadian Mortgage Trends).
Why it matters: More GTA homes would fall inside the insurable range, which could widen lender choice for buyers with larger down payments. Speak with a licensed mortgage professional about how any final rules apply to you.
Foreign buyer ban to run to 2029, with new homes exempt
Budget 2026 would keep the prohibition on foreign purchases of existing homes in place for two more years, until the start of 2029, while letting foreign buyers purchase new-build homes (Better Dwelling). The budget says this leaves most of the market to Canadians while drawing investment into new supply.
Better Dwelling, a critical commentary outlet, argues the exemption is meant to help clear unsold new-home inventory.
Why it matters: The change would touch the new-build segment, where developers hold inventory. Buyers and investors should watch for final legislation before drawing conclusions.
Toronto's new condo price index edges lower in the third quarter
Statistics Canada reported on November 3 that its New Condominium Apartment Price Index for Toronto stood at 127.6 in the third quarter of 2026, a small decline from the previous quarter (Statistics Canada). The national index was 120.8, also lower on the quarter. The index tracks developers' selling prices for newly built condominium apartments.
Why it matters: Developer prices for new Toronto condos softened over the quarter. Compare current listings in Toronto condos with that context in mind.
Mortgage insurance rules ease for triplexes and fourplexes
The budget plans to drop the $1.5-million value ceiling and the owner-occupancy requirement for eligible new triplexes and fourplexes. Private insurers would also be allowed to cover multi-unit properties with five to 50 units (Daily Hive Urbanized). Both changes apply to applications submitted by lenders on or after Feb. 1, 2027.
Why it matters: Smaller builders and investors working on "missing middle" housing may find financing easier from that date. Details should be confirmed with a lender.
Ottawa and the Bank of Canada renew the inflation framework
On November 5, the federal government and the Bank of Canada issued a joint statement renewing the monetary policy framework, which the two review every five years (Bank of Canada). They said keeping inflation low, stable and predictable remains the best contribution monetary policy can make. Inflation has returned to the 2% target.
Why it matters: The statement points to continuity in how the Bank of Canada sets its policy rate, which influences variable mortgage rates and renewal costs for owners.
Bond sales plan draws a muted forecast for fixed mortgage rates
BMO Capital Markets does not expect the budget to move bond yields much, and those yields influence fixed mortgage pricing. Ottawa intends to sell more five-year bonds in 2027–28 than this fiscal year, a rise BMO described as broadly expected (Canadian Mortgage Trends). Its economists said inflation and the trade dispute will weigh more heavily in the near term.
Why it matters: Owners with fixed-rate renewals ahead may find inflation and trade news more telling than the budget itself.
A $29-billion plan aims to end homelessness within a decade
Prime Minister Mark Carney's budget sets a decade-long target of moving Canada toward an end to homelessness, with about $29 billion for housing construction, specialized healthcare facilities, rental assistance and community supports (Daily Hive Urbanized). Ottawa would help pay upfront capital costs, while provinces would fund ongoing operations and services.
Why it matters: Delivery depends on cooperation among governments, so Ontario and municipal decisions will shape how much of this reaches the GTA.
Sources
- Joint Statement of the Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada on the Renewal of the Monetary Policy Framework — Bank of Canada, 2026-11-05
- Inflation and Borrowing Costs Impacted October GTA Real Estate Market — Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), 2026-11-04
- New Condominium Apartment Price Index, third quarter 2026 — Statistics Canada, 2026-11-03
- Canada To Lift Ban On Foreign Buyers of New Homes For “Affordability” — Better Dwelling, 2026-11-07
- New $29-billion federal plan to 'end homelessness' in Canada emphasizes adequate treatment and support services, not just housing — Daily Hive Urbanized, 2026-11-06
- Federal government to expand Canadians' access to 30-year insured mortgages and make rates easier to compare — Daily Hive Urbanized, 2026-11-06
- Budget 2026 explained: 12 changes for housing, mortgages and banking — Canadian Mortgage Trends, 2026-11-06
- Federal government eases Canada's mortgage insurance rules for select new housing construction — Daily Hive Urbanized, 2026-11-06
This article is general information, not financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Speak with a licensed professional about your situation. Statistics attributed to other organisations are theirs. Images are AI-generated and do not show the actual places, people or events reported.
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